The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published its Global EV Outlook 2021 report. According to the report, the number of electric vehicles, buses, vans and heavy trucks on roads is expected to hit 145 million by 2030!
IEA also mentioned that if governments ramp up their efforts to meet international energy and climate goals, the global electric vehicle fleet could increase further still, hitting 230 million by the end of the decade. Both of these projections exclude two-and three-wheeled electric vehicles.
The Global Scenario
The report shows that roughly three million new electric cars were registered last year, a record amount and a 41% rise compared to 2019. This jump pushed the total number of electric cars on the road to over 10 million, a figure supplemented by approximately 1 million electric buses, vans and heavy trucks.
The rise in electric vehicle car sales in 2020 came even as the worldwide automobile market contracted by 16% due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. In the first quarter of 2021, electric car sales were almost two and a half times higher than during the same period in 2020.
The IEA said consumer spending on electric cars in 2020 totaled $120 billion, a 50% increase compared to 2019, with government support measures designed to encourage electric vehicle take-up coming in at $14 billion.
Europe Dethrones China as Electric Vehicle Leader
The year also upset the long-standing number one electric car market -China pushed to number two by Europe. Sales of electric cars in Europe soar by 137% year on year to 1.4 million while the sales of the electric car in China, grew moderately by 12% to 1.34 million in 2020.
The spike in the demand for electric cars in Europe was mainly attributed to supportive regulatory frameworks such as many countries were strengthening key policies like CO2 emissions standards and zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates. Last year, at least 20 countries had announced bans on the sales of IC engine cars or mandated all new sales to be ZEVs.
Contrary to this China has been lowering its subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs) since 2019. The Chinese government announced the new EV subsidy policy for 2021 on December 31, 2020, which included a 20% year on year reduction in subsidies as planned.
According to the IEA report, globally, electric cars’ strong momentum will continue. “Existing policies around the world suggest healthy growth over this decade: in the Stated Policies Scenario, the EV stock across all modes (except two/three-wheelers) reaches 145 million in 2030, accounting for 7% of the road vehicle fleet,” the report stated.
It further asserts that EV markets could be significantly larger if governments accelerate efforts to reach climate goals. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, the global EV fleet reaches 230 million vehicles in 2030 (excluding two/three-wheelers), a stock share of 12%.
The reports talks about the well to wheel greenhouse gas emission says in 2030, in the Stated Policies Scenario, the global EV fleet reduces GHG emissions by more than one-third compared to an equivalent ICE vehicle fleet; in the Sustainable Development Scenario, the level rises to two-thirds.