According to a study by Dutch consultancies Berenschot and Kalavasta, Netherlands can reach anywhere from 38 GW to 125 GW solar capacity by 2050. This report shows that outcomes vary based on four different scenarios. The four scenarios being regional, national, European, and international scenario.
The “Regional” scenario shows the biggest solar energy capacity of 125 GW. In this scenario, the country will be self-sufficient in terms of power supply, and gas will act only as a backup. It is estimated that wind power capacity will reach 63 GW, backup power of 42 GW, and total demand is set to reach roughly 690 PJ.
The “National” scenario shows that the government will lead the energy transition. The country will reach a very high level of self-sufficiency. Solar energy capacity would reach 106 GW and wind power will reach the capacity of 92 GW. Backup power will range between 39 GW and 45 GW and total demand will reach 763 PJ.
According to the “European” scenario, the CO2 tax rate will reach the EU level and the country will remain as an energy importer. Solar energy capacity is expected to reach 42 GW and wind energy will reach 52 GW. Backup energy will reach anywhere from 45 GW and 53 GW and total demand will be higher and will reach 863 PJ.
The “International” scenario suggests an open international market with climate policy at the global level. According to this, the country won’t be self-sufficient and would continue to rely on energy imports. The Netherlands will have only 38 GW in solar energy capacity and 48 GW in wind energy and total demand will probably reach 842 PJ.
According to researchers, nothing is set in stone and “How the path towards a climate-neutral society will progress and what our energy system we will have in 2050 will depend on social considerations and political choices”.
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